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How to make a picture (.png with a transparent background using Microsoft Office

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I wanted to make a little text logo with a transparent background for a logo.  This is how I did it using only Powerpoint and Microsoft Office Picture Manager.

1 Use Powerpoint to make the logo in WordArt

  1. Open Powerpoint and a new presentation
  2. Insert WordArt and add your text
  3. Right click to allow you edit the Text Effects and Shape. Patiently remove anything you don’t want and set every background to transparent.
  4. If you cannot see Save as a Picture, right click on the text box and tell it to close the edit.  If necessary, do this several times until Save as a Picture appears.
  5. Save as a Picture.

2 Use Microsoft Picture Manager to crop and resize

  1. Use Microsoft Picture Manager to open the .png file.
  2. Crop and resize as you need to.
  3. Resave.

Done!  You should have a text logo in .png format with a transparent background.

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Install a WYSIWIG editor on Drupal in 6 clear steps

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I hope these instructions will save other people that many hours I spent.

Situation

I am setting up a blog with Drupal and I want to add a WYSIWYG.  If you blog already, you will recall that WordPress, and very likely other blog progams, allow you to write directly onto the screen.  This is called “Visual”.  Alternatively, you can write in plain text and add HTML (e.g., mark a heading with  <h1>).  This is called HTML.

The core of Drupal comes with HTML only.  I am trying to add a WYSIWYG or Visual option.

Overview

Basically, we have to

  • Download and install the WYSIWYG module.
  • Go to Configuration and look for WYSIWYG profile.  Select it.
  • Look at at the choice of WYSIWYG editors.  I chose CKeditor.
  • Make a new folder in the root directory of your website.  More  just now.
  • Download and unpack the CKeditor following the link provided.
  • And now for the trick.  Rejig the position of the files of CKeditor.

Taking these steps one-by-one.

#1 Download and install the WYSIWYG module

You have two choices.  Install the WYSIWYG module manually (go to Modules in the top tool bar) and then remember to install the module which requires only that you check a check box.

Alternatively, if you have already installed Drush, go to your Windows Command Line (at Start, All Programs, Accessories), check Drush is working by typing “Drush Status”, and then change your directory to your website.  “cd c:wampwwwmywebsitenamesitesallmodulescontrib”.

Use Drush by typing

drush dl wysiwyg

drush en –y wysiwig

Note the module name is typed in lowercase.   The commands just mean “use drush to download wysiwyg” and “use drush to ‘enstall’ wysiwg”.

#2 Find the WYSIWYG Profile

Don’t use the profile on the Modules page.  Select Configuration on the top tool bar and look for the WYSIWYG profile on the left.  It should be immediately under “Text formats”.  If you cannot see it, go to your modules folder, delete WYSIWYG and start again. At least, that was my solution.

#3 Choose a WYSIWYG editor.

If you see the WYSIWYG profile, select it and you should see a long list of WYSIWYG editors all highlighted in blue.

I chose the first one, CKeditor.

Now, don’t rush.  This is not a module.  It is a library.  So, the download instructions are different.

#4 Make a folder to store the library

Using Windows Explorer, make a folder to receive the library.

I am working in WAMP and I will make a library folder at “sites/all.”  So I create C:/wamp/www/sites/all/libraries.

#5 Download the WYSIWYG editor library

Now go back to the screen where you had the choice of editor (highlighted in blue), download the library, and unpack it into your library folder.

#6 Rejig the files in the library

And now the catch which I will try to explain well as it caught me out for a while.

You will know have two folders, both containing files.

C:/wamp/www/sites/all/libraries/ckeditor

AND

C:/wamp/www/sites/all/libraries/ckeditor/ckeditor

Copy all the files from the lower folder (ckeditor/ckeditor) into the upper folder.

Summary

Now when you go back to the top tool bar and select configuration, and go to the WYSWYG profile, you will see a boring white and grey table containing the label “Input Format”.  Congratulations!  You have done what defeats many – activated the CKeditor on Drupal.

Use the drop-down lists to pick the CKeditor and save.  Nothing happens, so go back to the WYSIWYG profile and you will see a new screen where you can “edit” the settings.  This is where you set up your WYSIWYG editor.  Reward yourself. Here comes another learning curve!

Have I written on a similar topic?

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Install Drush on WAMP slowly but successfully

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I am presently building a website based on Drupal using my WAMP server on my laptop as a development site.

In these notes, I record the rather frustrating task of installing DRUSH. Drush is a facility for automating repetitive tasks involving in clicking together a Drupal site.   In particular, I wanted to simplify the tedious process of downloading and implementing all the modules needed to create a website.

Where I start from

These notes begin when two important stages have been completed.

Completed: Install a Wamp Server on your laptop.

Completed: Use a 5 minute install to create a Drupal site.

I am also assuming email has been set up for your development site and that you have looked around sufficiently to find the Modules tab at the top of the page.

It might be useful to install and activate one Module by hand so you appreciate the timesavings involved in using Drush.

Getting oriented: check your file structure

It is also helpful to look at your file structure before you begin.  I have WAMP stored under c:wamp and I store useful tools that I have downloaded from the internet at c:tools.

Each of my websites is stored in c:wampwwwwebsite1, c:wampwwwwebsite2, etc.  If the website is based on Drupal, then Drupal is placed in the website folder.  This means I may have more than  one copy of Drupal on my laptop. That strikes me as inefficient, but that is my set up at present.

Find Drush and gnuwin32 online

To get Drush, working, locate the Drush site through Google and download version 5 (not 4 – it doesn’t work  on Windows) to a folder called Drush under c:tools.

Now find gnuwin32 using Google and download the following using whatever setup.exe there are.  Gnuwin32 will give you Unix commands.  Download the following into your Program Files (x86).

  • Libarchive
  • Gzip
  • Wget
  • Gtar
  • Bsdtar

An extra step

I found advice to copy bsdtar.exe onto tar.exe.  No feedback occurs at all so it might be idea to run through the whole setup and if you have trouble, come back to do this step.

Adjust your path statement

Now adjust your Path statement (very carefully).  Adjusting the path statement allows you to call Drush from c:tools and for Drush to call PHP and SQL from WAMP and to use the Gnuwin32 commands.

Practically, open Word or a text editor, and then open Windows Explorer.  Go to c:toolsdrush and confirm that you can see the drush.bat file.  If so, copy the path, e.g., c:toolsdrush from the browser at the top of the screen to the text editor and add a semi-colon (;).

Now do the same for the other critical components.

  • C:Program Files (x86)Gnuwin32
  • C:Program Files (x86)Gnuwin32bin [where gzip hangs out]
  • C:wampbinphpphpn.n.n [whatever numbers you have]
  • C:wampbinmysqlmysql.1.36bin

You should have a long line of paths separated by semi-colons(;).

Now find your path statement. Go to Computer/Properties/Advanced/Environment Variables and be very careful. Messing this up can mess up the entire system.  It is also hard to see what you are doing.

Make sure the current Path Statement ends with a semicolon (;).  Copy the extra paths from your text editor and save.

Test the installation of Drush

Get your Command Line (got to Accessories) and check whether all is well by typing “drush status”.

If all looks sensible, then you are ready to download another module.  First, go to Windows Explorer and add a subdirectory to your website as follows.

c:wampwwwmywebsitenamesitesallmodulescontrib

Then use the Windows Command Line to work within this new directory.

  • Cd c:wampwwwmywebsitenamesitesallmodulescontrib

Then

  • Drush dl module
  • Drush en –y module

Conclusion

When you log in to your website the module should be installed and activated, saving you a lot of effort.

Just remember to use the CLI to work within the subdirectory so that Drush downloads here and not elsewhere.

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A neat trick to help me learn Mandarin

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I learn Mandarin and while the vocabulary, tones and characters take lots of practice, the sentence structure requires experience.
To step me through the vocab, speech and writing in congenial company, I use the social network LiveMocha. I don’t find the lessons particularly well designed, but the community is friendly, and it is easy to find a study buddy who will guide you in return for your help in their English studies.
Sentence structure requires another approach. If I were in China, I would read and hear sentences every day. But in the middle of England, without a Mandarin speaker in earshot, I need a way to read regularly.

For this I signed up to service from Transparent Language that sends me a sentence a day. I receive a new word every day in a sentence in pinyin (our script) and I can click through to see the Chinese characters and hear the pronunciation. Sadly that is in Flash and we can’t copy and paste the characters into Google Translate but the essential purpose is achieved. I am regularly being exposed to normal sentence structures.

昨天下 了大雨

Zuó tiān xià le dà yǔ

Yesterday it rained heavily

Literally: Yester day under(past tense) big rain

This sentence was quite fortuitous.  We have an unusually heavy wet spell at the moment in the UK.  The sentence also shows why this additional homework is so useful to me.  Though the sentence uses common characters and is much simpler than an English sentence, it is not at all like English. Experience is simply as important as learning examples.
I recommend the service highly as a supplement to your efforts to learn Mandarin.

May 2017: I use mobile apps now.  Not as sociable but contemporary apps (just five years later) check my pronounciation.

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How to set up email with WAMP

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Development sites and production sites; host and local servers

When I develop a new website, say for my blog, I set up a mock version on my laptop. In techy-speak, I am using a “development site” on a “server” on “local host”.  When the website is ready, I move it to my hosting service (in my case Dreamhost in the US). That is my “production site” and the website will thereafter physically reside on their servers and they will be the host.

Set up WAMP

I use a standard laptop to develop my websites. This one has Windows 7. My last one had Windows XP, and so on.  To set up my local server, I download WAMP.  As I only download WAMP when I have a new computer, I follow the instructions on LifeHacker, which are very clear.

Basically, I arrive at an arrangement where I have

  • A directory in C: called C:wamp
  • A program under C:ProgramFiles called WampServer where I can fire up WAMP (I leave WAMP off when I am not using it)
  • Within C:wamp is C:wampwww where my websites are stored
  • And within WampServer is access to localhost, PHP and MySQL.  PHP runs the server and MySQL sets up databases to store blogs.

It is all rather baffling at first but set aside a quiet Sunday afternoon and work methodically.  You will manage fine.

Set up email for a development site on WAMP

This post is about setting up email to work with a development site. I never bothered to set it up for my WordPress mockups because I already knew how WordPress worked and I could fast forward in my mind to what the production site would look like.  But yesterday, I downloaded Elgg to develop a social network and I really wanted to test the email functionality.  So this is how I set up email functionality for WAMP.

The basic principles are that I downloaded an email service called sendmail and I edited my PHP.ini file.  Both are easy and I will go into the details just now. This paragraph is to record an important point.  The set up changed the default email in the PHP.ini file. This is why that matters.  It is highly probable that each development site has a different email address.  The solution in this email assumes that the same email address is used with every site.  Either use the same email address for all your development sites or remember to change the sendmail.ini each time you change sites (and possibly the php.ini as well).  Whatever, don’t be surprised if something breaks. This could be the cause.

How to set up email for WAMP in three steps

#1 Download sendmail into a the c:wampbinsendmail

You will know you are in the right place because  bin has directories for PHP and MySQL

#2 Edit sendmail.ini in a text editor

I linked to a gmail account so at the date of writing (April 2012), look for these lines and fix them accordingly

smtp_server=smtp.gmail.com

smtp_port=587

smtp_ssl=tls

auth_username=youremailaddresses@gmail.com

auth_password=youremailpassword

NB I am using an email address that works with Google Apps so the gmail.com in my email address actually read myname@mydomainname.com

Save!

#3 Edit your php.ini file

On my version of Windows 7, I start my WampServer by finding it on the All Programs list. Then I look on the bottom tool bar for an upward arrow.  I activate WAMP with the big W.  Once it turns green, I can find everything that comes with WAMP.

I select PHP and open PHP.ini in a text editor.  I find “mail function” and I will now edit it out all mail settings AND add a path directing WAMP to the sendmail that I just set up.  These are the important lines.

[mail function]

; For Win32 only.

; http://php.net/smtp

; SMTP =

; http://php.net/smtp-port

; smtp_port = 25

 

; For Win32 only.

; http://php.net/sendmail-from

; sendmail_from = an email address that is already there

 

; For Unix only.  You may supply arguments as well (default: “sendmail -t -i”).

; http://php.net/sendmail-path

sendmail_path = C:wampbinsendmailsendmail.exe -t

 

; Force the addition of the specified parameters to be passed as extra parameters

; to the sendmail binary. These parameters will always replace the value of

; the 5th parameter to mail(), even in safe mode.

; mail.force_extra_parameters =

In short, make sure all the lines but one start with a semi-colon and copy the path line above.

Save!

And restart your server by pressing the arrow on the tool bar, selecting W, and “restart all services”.

Done

Now test your email service. You should be able to send an email from Elgg (or any other service). So try it – send an email from your development website (the email address does match what you put in sendmail.ini, right?) to another of your email addresses and go to see it it arrives within seconds.

Done!  You have set up email functionality in WAMP.

Make your own notes so you can do it again. And importantly, recall what you have done when you move to a production site or start another development site.  Write your own notes!  It only takes a few minutes!

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Some people talk such guff about education

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People talk such guff about education.

In brief, you want an organized map of the field, a reason to want to explore the map, money and time to put into the effort, and someone patient enough to guide you and respond to your reactions.

You also want to break your learning into reasonable chunks.   You need to work little and often to be able to concentrate and to think out how new information connects to what you already know and believe and your activity needs to be a judicious mix of time with your tutor, time working with others and time working alone.

Have I written any thing similar?

 

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Why entrepreneurs succeed: don’t forget the third reason

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Reason 1 : Obstacles may not really be obstacles

What really drives entrepreneurs?  In short, they look around and say “I can do this better!”  You and I see a constraint or barrier and see it as fixed.  An entrepreneur says:  “This can go.  I can take it away. I can ignore it. I could use it as a vaulting-horse and jump over it.”

Reason 2 :  Organize to take the profit

What makes a successful economic entrepreneur is that they also notice that they can rejig the working arrangements and take the profit themselves:  “All the better for making me better off!”

Reason 3:  Don’t forget reason 3

So, entrepreneurs are “in” the game and they see an opportunity.  Then, they notice how to rearrange the game to seize the opportunity for themselves.

But, they don’t stop there.  They do something else that is critical to their success.  They rally people to help them win.

Entrepreneurship is competitive.  Even if entrepreneurs are not about to bring their old industry or business to its knees, they are going to become more important than their former colleagues and bosses.  A certainty of entrepreneurial life is that whomever is going to lose out or become less important than them will fight back!

Make sure people are better off with them than against them

And, so it should be.  Why should others stand back and give up their right and impulse to compete! This is why rallying a team is so important to entrepreneurial success.  In essence, an entrepreneur wants to make sure people are better off with them than against them.

This is the skill that psychologists can help teach entrepreneurs.

  • We will let you spot the opportunity in the business that you are in.
  • We will let accountants help you figure out the business structure and financing.
  • What we do is help you learn that all important skill:  to build a team where people are better off with you than against you!

 ACADEMIC REFERENCE

Power as Practice: A Micro-sociological Analysis of the Dynamics of Emancipatory Entrepreneurship
David Goss, Robert Jones, Michela Betta and James Latham
Organization Studies, 2011, 32
[Downloadable from David Goss’ homepage at Surrey]

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Baffled by bankers’ bonuses? Read agency theory

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I am writing this post, as is my wont, to record some notes from a paper I read:

Azevado, R.E and Akdere, M.  (2011). Examining Agency Theory in Training and Development: Understanding Self-Interest Behaviors in the Organization.  Human Resources Development Review, Volume No Not Known, 18 pages. If you want a copy, both authors are presently at the University of Minnesota.

I read the paper because agency theory is the theory behind the big bonuses that are provoking so much controversy.

The application of agency theory to Training is new and nothing to do with bonuses.  But I wanted to tidy up my own thinking about agency theory and if you do too, I’d recommend reading Azevado and Akdere’s paper.  They explain the basic precepts of that school of thinking very well.

I don’t like agency theory and I wanted to pinpoint exactly why I think it is misguided.  I’ve boiled my objections down to three essential points:  the distaste agency theorists have for self-interest, their belief in a zero-sum game, and their belief that the world is so static and unchanging that any one person knows best.

Self-interest

Adam Smith said:

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we can expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”.

Some people are sincerely concerned about self-interest, and like the far left, so are agency theorists.

Personally, I am delighted that the self-interest of the butcher, the baker and the brewer leads to a butcher, a bakery and a pub on the high street. I believe in caveat emptor (buyer beware) but I am not panicking that the butcher, the baker and the brewer might from time-to-time charge me 1p too much.

I also don’t panic that today the butcher tries to sell me something that he is trying to ‘move’.  Provided he has taken my self-interest into account and sold me something to fit my needs, we are ‘square’.

I get my needs met now. I get my needs met over the long term because his shop stays open.  And my business does better because he can buy from me!

(Funny that – the last female butcher that I met was my own grandmother.)

Generativity vs zero-sum gains

Agency theorists begin with an assumption that if I pursue my self-interest, then I am not pursuing yours.

Or at least, they believe that inherent in belonging to an organization is the need for the organization to ask me not to pursue my self-interest in some form or another.

It certainly is the case, for example in a soccer game, that I shouldn’t pass the ball to the opposition on purpose, or showing off to my mates in the crowd and not pay attention to the game.

But why should my self-interest be sacrificed as a matter of principle or practice?  If we need to sacrifice anything, let’s compromise and make sacrifices all round.  And wouldn’t it better to put our efforts into making a business environment which is rich enough for us all to pursue our self-interest?

To take a simple example, does it matter if I am miner, metallurgist, engineer, accountant or diamond cutter, provided that all of us work together to mine the diamonds safely and sell them profitably to people who want them?

I’ve found that where people stand on this point is fairly key to their choice of work and choice of organization.  Some people want quick returns. They really don’t believe an organization is more than the sum of its parts.  So be it. We’ll help them go where they need to go.

Those of us who don’t believe that life is zero sum game should stay away from organizations run in terms of agency theory. We will hate them.  And we need to put our money where our mouth is. We have to make our own organizations as good as we want them to be – and successful commercially.

‘Gap’ thinking vs positive management

Agency theory seems tremendously old school to me in the notion that there is a right way to do things and that someone somewhere knows what this right thing is.

Now there are definitely wrong ways to do things.  There have to be things we wouldn’t countenance no matter what.

Expertise is also real. And it takes time, a long time to learn.  Indeed, good organizations arrange themselves so that people can develop expertise and learn from each other.

But the idea that we know the whole answer and we can insist that people do things our way is very unrealistic.  If it was ever possible, it is not possible in today’s world where we rely on networks of experts.  We each bring our own perspective to a problem and we are richer for it.

Returning to agency theory, if no one knows what the best answer is until we have discussed, how do we evaluate whether our agents are pursuing our interests vigorously?

Worse, if we do not allow the room to work out what our interests are, haven’t we built into the organization the very thing that we fear most – that our agents withhold information that is valuable to us?

So in short, these are my three objections to agency theory.

I think self-interest is good, not bad.  We want people to think about their self-interest because we will have a healthier, sounder and more resilient organization (and economy).

I don’t see the world as a zero-sum game. I don’t see the world as a cake to be divided up.  At best I see the world as having no cake until we’ve baked it.  And there are cakes and cakes. Real wizards will make us a cake even when the ingredients for their favourite recipe are not available.

I don’t think we know upfront what our self-interest is.  Good organizations are forum where negotiations and bargaining lead to mutually prosperous ventures.

How does any of this help me understand bankers’ bonuses?  Well they are mystery, to be sure.    Agency theory is not standard organization and management theory but to turn away from thinking that captures attention with promises of large rewards, we need not only an alternative but an understanding of the thinking itself.  Do read Azevado and Akdere’s paper.  I found it helpful even though, or possibly because it was about the less emotive topic of Training.

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5 steps to understanding the global value chain

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In today’s world, trading systems are global and with their global reach, they are complex.  Each of us has to find our niche, and the big question is how do we “insert” ourselves into a vibrant and rich value chain.

  • How do we access the chain?
  • How do we compete successfully?
  • How do we capture gains in a way that we can grow and become more competitive?
  • How do we take part and take part gainfully?

We aren’t interested in every value chain in the world, but for those that fascinate and attract our attention, we want tools to understand who does what and how to find our place.

  • We want to describe what we make in this value chain and how we make it.
  • We want to think geographically about where everything is.
  • We want to know how the chain cooperates within itself and how it makes sure everyone does their part well and reliably.
  • We want to know how we relate to other value chains and in particular how we honour our obligations to be good citizens in every country where we work.
  • And how is our value chain changing?

These are notes I made from Global Value Chain Analysis: A Primer.  They should be helpful when you are thinking ahead about thorny issues of developing a supply chain.  Once you have the basics, they it would be best to go back to the original source at Duke University.

 #1 What do we make in our value chain?

Our value chain includes everyone who is in it – from people who think up ideas, to people who supply raw materials, to the people who make things, move things and sell things to the people, yes, who pick up the waste and recycle what we throw out.

We map out everyone in the system, initially simply, and then in more detail showing what each person needs and use and what they get back in terms of wages, profits and new possibilities.

#2 Where does everything happen?

Value chains are global but the different parts of the value will happen in different places?  Where?  Can we show the value chain on a map?

And is there a good reason why things happen in any place?  Are the natural resources there?  Do they have a long history in making what is made?  Is the market there?  Are transport lines particularly good?  Does the government give the players special privileges?

What are the opportunities for capturing parts of the value chain and moving them elsewhere?  And who else is looking at the value chain seeing the same opportunities for themselves?

#3 Who has the power  in the network?

Sometimes it is easy to spot a big player like Walmart who dominates the entire chain?  Knowing the ‘type’ of chain that we are in also helps us learn from chains in other industries that we might think are different but are organized in the same way.

  • Price-driven Markets.  Is what we are producing so basic that our buyers do not have a say in what we produce? They buy what is there based on availability and price?  The consumer petrol (gas) market is an example.  There is no difference in buying from BP, Mobil or Shel
  • Order-modulated Businesses.  Do we deliver to customers exactly what they ordered but along the lines of simple combinations of orders as we do with a menu in a restaurant?  Do we offer our customers choice but within a fairly simple range so that cost of taking orders and conveying them to production is fairly low when spread over all our customers?  And equally, is it fairly cheap for our customers to switch to another business that offers a similar service?
  • Relationship Businesses.  Do we need to understand quite a lot about our customer’s needs?  Does it take time to listen to them and do our costs fall dramatically as we get to know them?  Equally, do customers prefer to work with someone who knows them well and work problems out rather than switch to someone else?  Do we have the same relationship with our suppliers?  Do we know what they are particularly good at making and do we prefer to work with them for their special expertise?
  • Captive Networks.  Is our value chain dominated by one buyer on whom we all depend?  Does the dominant buyer pretty much dictate terms?  Does the dominant buyer have the capacity to compensate for our dependence on them with secure contracts and other assistance such as ‘extension’ workers who will help us improve our operations?
  • Hierarchical Governance.  Is work in our value chain so complicated that it has to be completed within a single company structure run by managers experience in co-ordinating the intricate work in that sector?

Governance structures do three things: they express power differentials – who depends upon whom, they provide mechanisms to coordinate ourselves for our mutual prosperity, and they define relative profit margins within our value chain.   Our natural inclination is to manoeuvre ourselves in to a better position and we will do so whenever we can.  So as with political government, good governance is not static and rigid.  It is dynamic, it is aware of shifting sands and it is fair.  Nothing ruins a business relationship faster than the sense that the spoils are divide unfairly.

Sometimes we dismiss governance as ‘politicking’ and sometimes, it is.  But it is as important as doing the work. It is every changing and we are doing business at a time when the rise of the BRICS and the growth of IT and web technology is changing business models.  We need to pay attention and see where our value chain is going.

 #4 PEST Analysis

The relationship between our value chain and the wider world can be thought through using a standard PEST analysis.  In each place where any part of value chain operates, what are the political, economic, social and technological issues and how are these changing?

#5 Making our value chain

Everyone taking part in our value chain is there to make a living and the best living they can.  Hopefully, it is well governed and we can be competitive and innovative without destroying each other and destroying our value chain at the same time.

But the prosperity of the entire value chain does change in time and so does our position in it.

At first, obviously we know little about the value chain. But we can learn about the chain as a whole. We can park out the parts that we do know. And we can mark out who else knows what.

And we can be particularly alert to the best order of learning more and learning about the governance of the chain.

The best example of taking over a value chain was the move by Indian IT firms into software.

At first, we might be able to bid easily for repetitive work.  Then we can gradually increase our skills to handle more difficult work that commands a higher price.

Some sectors are well documented and we can even get government statistics to understand how the value chain works.  In others, we have to resort to special reports and even proxy metrics.  The important thing is to keep paying attention and to keep learning.

  • What are the entry points into this value chain?
  • What are the paths from entry points to more commanding positions?
  • When and how do people broaden their command of the value chain?
  • When and how do people specialize because it is profitable in both the short and long term (20-50 years) to do so?

There are three neat tricks to anticipating where a value chain will go.

  • Layout the present chain so that you can see what is going on
  • Do a 4×4 with the pest analysis showing the interactions of economic and social drivers and social and economic drivers, and so on.
  • And then consider the local education policies.  The labour market has very low elasticity – which means it is slow to respond. Simply, it takes a long time to train people. If the local industry is not well organized about bringing people into the work force and training them 10, 20 and even 30 years ahead, then people will not be available. Correspondingly, when they have the skills, they are motivated to drive change.

Thinking about global business and managing future prospects

So that is it in nutshell.

    • What? (from what into what)
    • Where? (from where to where)
    • Who? (who does the work and who has the dominant voice?)
    • Why? ( why are people in this business and not another – PEST)
    • What’s next? (what is changing and what will change in the next 10-20-30-40-50 years?)
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